MAGNA FURTHER SLASHES 2020 AD SALES OUTLOOK DUE TO THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

By JEANINE POGGI. Published by AD AGE on 15 June 2020.

U.S. ad revenue now expected to decline 4.3 percent this year, following March forecast of 2.8 percent drop

 

Magna is further slashing its ad sales outlook for 2020 in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. The agency now expects a 4.3 percent decline in U.S. revenue to $213 billion, down from its forecast in March of a 2.8 percent drop in ad revenue this year.

On a global basis, Magna now predicts a 7 percent decline in ad sales. In December, the agency had forecast 5.6 percent increase.

There will be long-term repercussions of COVID-19 on the global ad market through 2024, and Magna reduced its forecast for 2022-224 to 3.5 percent growth per year, from 4.5 percent.

Linear ad sales for TV, radio, print and out-of-home are expected to suffer the most, with Magna predicting the category will fall 13 percent to $83 billion in the U.S. in 2020.

While linear TV experienced a surge in viewing consumption for about eight weeks in the height of the pandemic, those levels were mostly back to normal by early June, says Vincent Létang, exec VP, global market intelligence at Magna, and author of the report.

National TV ad revenues are expected to shrink by 13 percent this year; print ad sales will plunge by 26 percent; radio ad revenue is expected to be down by 17 percent; out-of-home will decrease by 17.5 percent; and cinema ad sales will topple 36 percent, according to Magna’s report.

Digital ad spending is expected to stabilize in the summer and recover in the second half, ending the year up 2 percent to $130 billion. The space benefited from an increase in digital media usage during the lockdown and an acceleration of e-commerce that is expected to outlive social distancing, Létang, says.

Digital video will be one of the most resilient formats, expected to grow 10 percent, as well as social media.

But even this growth still represents a significant slowdown compared to the double-digit growth rates in digital advertising of previous year.

The 2020 election cycle will generate $4.8 billion in incremental ad sales, up 24 percent from the 2016 election and hitting an all-time high. This is expected to significantly mitigate the decline of ad revenues in 2020.

Moving into 2021, Magna expects U.S. advertising sales to rebound, gaining 4 percent to $222 billion. However, the U.S. ad market will still be slightly smaller than it was in 2019 when it brought in $223 million.

Read the Press Release. 
Read the article on Ad Age.

LIFE AFTER COVID: GLOBAL AD MARKET TO RECOVER IN 2021 AFTER STEEP DOWNTURN IN 2020

MAGNA ADVERTISING FORECASTS – JUNE 2020 UPDATE

Global Press Contact: [email protected]

Author: Vincent Letang, EVP, Managing Partner, Global Market Intelligence

  • Media Owner Linear Advertising Sales to Decrease by -16% Globally Amidst Global Recession While Digital Ad Sales Will Slow Down (+1%).
  • Total Media Owner Advertising Revenues (Linear + Digital Formats) to Shrink by $42 billion (-7.2%) in 2020, Before Recovering +6.1% in 2021.
  • EMEA Fares Worse than Other Regions with Total Advertising Down -10% and Up to -14% in Southern Europe.
  • US Market Shrinks by -4% as Political Ad Sales ($5 billion) and Digital Media Resilience (+3%) Mitigate the Decline of Linear Sales (-17% Excl. Political).
  • Beyond the 2020 Economic Recession, the COVID Crisis Will Have Lasting Effects on Consumption, Business Models and Marketing Expenditure.

 

GLOBAL MARKET PLACE: -7% IN 2020

  1. Media owners’ advertising revenues will decrease by $42 billion in 2020, from $582 billion to $540 billion, as advertising spending shrinks due to the severe economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, as GDP is expected to contract between -5% and -12% across the world’s largest markets. Global advertising revenues will decrease by an estimated -7%, as the heavy, double-digit decline of linear ad sales (linear TV, print, linear radio, OOH, cinema), -16% to $238 billion, will be mitigated by the stability of digital formats: +1% to $302 billion.
  2. Linear television ad revenues will shrink by -12% this year, due to the weakness of demand, the cancellation of many TV campaigns and the postponement of major sports events. Print ad sales will decline by -32% while linear radio advertising revenues will decrease by -15%. Out-of-home, the most dynamic linear media channel pre-COVID is hurt by the dramatic decline in traffic and audience, in addition to the fall in demand from local and national advertisers. Global OOH ad sales are expected to decline by -22%, with the transit segment experiencing even deeper decreases. Finally, theater closures will cause cinema advertising to decline by -40% this year.
  3. Digital formats advertising sales (search, video, social, banners) are expected to be flat (+1% at $302 billion) as a second half recovery will offset the first half decline. Digital formats benefit from increased digital media usage during lockdown, an acceleration of e-commerce that will likely outlive the lockdown, and a boost to lower-funnel marketing tools that is classic in recession times. Search will remain the largest digital advertising formats ($142 billion) but global sales will stagnate (-1%). Social media and digital ad formats will slow down from previous years but still grow single-digit this year (both +8%) while the revenues of static banner ads will fall by -11% as the COVID crisis adds to the increasing restrictions on data-based targeting.
  4. As the pandemic and economic crisis is global, so is the impact on the advertising market. EMEA and Latin America will experience the worst downturn, with total advertising revenues down -10%, with APAC marginally more resilient (-8.5%). North America may show more stability, partly due to the $5 billion that will be spent around the 2020 election cycle (see more details on the US market in the US section of this summary). Among the worst downturns predicted by MAGNA in 2020, among large markets, Japan and Spain (both -14%), France (-13%) and Italy (-15%). India (+2%), China (-6%) and the US market (-4%) will be less dramatically affected.
  5. The 2Q lockdown has prompted some dramatic changes in media consumption. Linear TV viewing increased by 10% to 40% during lockdown but MAGNA anticipates a return to long-term erosion in the second half. Streaming video, SVOD and OTT consumption also accelerated further during lockdown. The impact on audio media varied by market but radio struggles where car commuting represents a large part of daily audience. Finally, OOH suffers from driving mobility and transit mobility down -60 to -80% in North America and Europe in 2Q and only the former showing significant recovery by June.
  6. In 2021, the global economy recovers (real GDP +5.8% according to the IMF) and major sports events (Summer Olympics, UEFA Football Championship in Europe) will fuel a recovery in marketing budgets and advertising spending. MAGNA predicts global ad spend to grow by +6.1% to $573 billion (EMEA: +7.1%, APAC: +8.1%, LATAM: +6.7%, NA: +4.0%). Despite the forecast recovery, the global market place will remain $9 billion smaller than its pre-COVID level.

Vincent Létang, EVP Global Market Intelligence at MAGNA and author of the report, said:

“Beyond the short-term V-shaped recession/recovery impact on the economy and the advertising market, the COVID crisis will have global and long-term effects on society, business models, consumption habits, mobility and media usage, all factors pointing to a more subdued economic growth and advertising spend than previously forecast for the 2022-2024 period. MAGNA thus reduces its global advertising growth forecast for these three years, from +4.5% per year to +3.5% year. The global ad market will reach $647 billion by 2021 compared to $745 billion in our previous long-term scenario (a -14% decrease)”.

US MARKET: -13% FOR LINEAR MEDIA IN 2020

  1. Total media owners advertising revenues (NAR) (linear+digital) will fall -4.3% to $213 billion in 2020, as the COVID pandemic leads to the worst economic downturn ever. Real GDP is expected to shrink by at least -6% full year, while household consumption falls, and unemployment rises. Excluding the $5 billion of incremental revenues from political advertising spending from the 2020 election cycle, non-political advertising revenues would actually drop -5.9% vs 2019.
  2. Linear advertising sales (linear TV, radio, print, OOH) will suffer the most, with full-year sales declining by -13% to $83 billion. Excluding linear political ad revenues (approx. $4bn) the actual decline of linear ad sales would be closer to -17%. The economic shutdown has not only cut down marketing activity from national brands and local businesses, but has also affected media consumption for print, radio and out of home. Linear television experienced a surge in consumption for about eight weeks but viewing levels were mostly back to normal by early June.
  3. In contrast with most linear media, digital advertising formats benefit from increased consumption, and will remain more resilient to the drop in advertisers demand. MAGNA anticipates ad spend on digital formats (search, video, social, banners, digital audio) to stabilize in the summer and recover in the second half, generating stability or modest growth on a full year basis (+2% to $130 billion). The most resilient formats will be digital video, expected to grow +10%, as well as social media formats (+7%), as suggested by the better-than-expected revenue trends published by Google and Facebook in 1Q20 financials. These growth rates still represent a significant slowdown compared to the double-digit growth rates of previous years, and the dollar stability reflects the fact that digital ad formats continue to gain market share during this recession.
  4. Advertising revenues still posted a +3.5% gain in the first quarter of 2020 (+2% excluding cyclical events), despite obvious deterioration in March. Digital video, social media and search drove spending growth in the quarter, with performances of +19%, +17% and +12%, respectively. Also of note was the nearly +5% increase in out of home media, as the billboard segment more than offset declines in the transit and street furniture segments in March. National television advertising sales dropped -8% in the quarter, which MAGNA believes was the result of January-February being flat and March being down -22% as the COVID lockdown led to many campaigns being cancelled or postponed.
  5. However, advertising sales are expected to post a precipitous decline in the second quarter: -17%. Many media formats will post substantial declines. National television ad revenues will fall -24%. Local television, radio, and print will see revenue declines of -30%, -34%, and -40% respectively. Out of home will be hit by the double-whammy of falling demand and falling audience as car traffic and public transit usage have fallen by 50% to 80% across the nation. OOH sales may decline by up to -44%. But the worst impact will be for cinema advertising with almost zero revenue during the quarter as theaters only start to reopen in the second half of June and all major movie releases have been postponed to 3Q and 4Q.
  6. With the gradual relaxation of lockdown measures throughout the US, MAGNA expects advertising spending to start to stabilize in 3Q (-5% vs 3Q19) and recover in 4Q (flat vs 4Q19) as some businesses that started reopening in May-June will need to rebuild market shares, traffic and sales in the coming months. Assuming an economic stabilization does take place in the second half, MAGNA expects national TV full-year advertising revenues to shrink by -13%. Local TV non-political ad revenues will decrease by -17% as key local TV verticals like auto dealers are severely affected by the downturn. With an expected $3 billion in incremental political revenues, total local TV ad sales will only decline by -2.4% (vs +10% to +20% in a normal election year). Print ad sales will shrink by 26% and radio ad revenues by -17%. OOH ad revenues will decrease by -17.5% and cinema ad sales by 36%. Finally, direct mail ad revenues will shrink by -12% as political revenues (half a billion dollars, +8% vs 2016) will mitigate the decline of non-political revenues (-15%).
  7. The economy shrank by -5% in the first quarter of 2020 (at an annualized rate) and is expected to contract by as much as -32% in the second quarter. The lockdown has caused personal consumption to plummet: retail sales fell -16% in April. Some sectors of consumption have been less affected by the lockdown as consumers’ use of ecommerce and local delivery exploded (food, drinks, toiletries, technology, etc.) but local services and goods relying on brick-and-mortar distribution have seen a collapse in sales during lockdown, car sales and clothing sales were down -50% and -90% in April, respectively.
  8. Many industries face significant economic headwinds and have been forced to cut considerable amounts of spend as a result. The travel, entertainment, automotive and restaurant industries will be among the most affected, and MAGNA expects each of these industries to reduce linear advertising spend by -25% or more on a full year basis. Conversely, pharmaceutical and food & beverage industries should remain relatively unscathed and will see their linear advertising spend reduced by single digits while certain segments in the technology industry (hardware, software, ecommerce) may even benefit from increased demand.
  9. The 2020 election cycle will generate $4.8bn in net incremental advertising sales, +24% compared to 2016 and a new all-time high. This will significantly mitigate the decline of advertising revenues in 2020. MAGNA reduces its previous growth forecast as fundraising from businesses and small donors will be affected by the recession but the massive spending in the first quarter and enormous war chests currently being amassed by Super PACs from large donors should still generate some growth vs four years ago. All media channels will benefit to a degree but digital media (social, video, search, in that order) will grow the most, to approach one billion dollars in political ad revenues this year for the first time.
  10. In 2021, MAGNA expects US advertising sales to rebound, posting a gain of +4.0% (+5.5% excluding cyclical events). However, with a total of $222 billion, the US ad market will still be slightly smaller than it was in 2019 ($223bn). The ad market will benefit from economic stabilization (GDP expected to grow between +3% – Philadelphia Fed – and +4.7% – IMF) and the Tokyo Olympic Games (approx. $800 million of incremental ad revenues). Linear advertising sales will stabilize (+1.5%) while digital ad sales will re-accelerate (+8%).

————–

 

KEY MAGNA FORECASTS

 

TABLE 1: NET ADVERTISING REVENUES – KEY REGIONS

NAR – YOY GROWTH 2019 2020 2021
WORLD (INCL. CE) 5.4% -7.2% 6.1%
WORLD (EXCL. CE) 6.5% -7.8% 6.4%
NORTH AMERICA 5.9% -4.4% 4.0%
LATIN AMERICA 3.8% -9.9% 6.7%
WESTERN EUROPE 4.4% -10.3% 7.2%
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE 6.8% -7.7% 7.6%
EMEA 5.0% -9.8% 7.1%
APAC 5.3% -8.5% 8.1%
EMERGING MARKETS 7.0% -6.8% 7.2%
DEVELOPED MARKETS 4.8% -7.4% 5.7%

Source: MAGNA, June 2020

 

TABLE 2: NET ADVERTISING REVENUES – US MARKET

 YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH 2019 2020 2021
TOTAL DIGITAL 16.8% 2.8% 7.3%
Search 17.2% 2.2% 8.0%
Online Video 26.5% 10.8% 7.8%
Social Media 26.3% 8.1% 9.1%
Mobile 26.2% 8.6% 12.0%
TOTAL LINEAR -5.7% -13.7% -1.3%
National TV (incl. CE) -2.0% -13.2% 4.3%
National TV (excl. CE) -0.5% -13.6% 2.9%
Local TV (incl. CE) -15.6% -2.4% -14.5%
Local TV (excl. CE) -2.9% -16.9% 0.1%
Print -13.5% -26.4% -8.5%
Radio -0.1% -16.0% 0.6%
Out-of-home 7.5% -15.7% 8.9%
Cinema -0.1% -36.2% 29.2%
Direct Mail -3.5% -12.3% -2.0%
GRAND TOTAL (incl. CE) 5.9% -4.3% 4.0%
GRAND TOTAL (excl. CE) 8.0% -5.9% 5.4%

Source: MAGNA, June 2020

 

TABLE 3: NET ADVERTISING REVENUES – OTHER MARKETS

 YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH 2019 2020 2021
AUSTRALIA 1.0% -8.3% 6.9%
BRAZIL 7.9% -4.7% 4.0%
CANADA 5.5% -5.9% 4.8%
CHINA 8.4% -6.0% 6.8%
FRANCE 4.7% -13.1% 7.8%
GERMANY 2.0% -10.5% 7.8%
INDIA 10.6% 2.3% 8.6%
ITALY 0.4% -14.5% 8.8%
JAPAN 1.6% -14.2% 11.1%
RUSSIA 5.6% -7.1% 6.5%
SPAIN 1.7% -14.3% 9.1%
UNITED KINGDOM 10.1% -8.9% 7.7%

Source: MAGNA, June 2020

 

ABOUT MAGNA

MAGNA is the centralized IPG Mediabrands resource that provides strategic investment and media intelligence for agency teams and clients. We utilize our insights, forecasts and strategic relationships to provide clients with a competitive marketplace advantage.

MAGNA harnesses the aggregate power of all IPG media investments to develop go-to-market strategies, designing unique partnerships to drive maximum value for our clients. MAGNA has set the industry standard for more than 60 years by predicting the future of media value. We publish more than 40 annual reports on audience trends, media spend and market demand as well as ad effectiveness.

MAGNA infuses the organization with knowledge that empowers better decision-making. We are a team of experts across five key competencies who support IPG cross-functional teams through: Partnership, Enablement, Accountability and Connectivity.

To access full reports and databases or to learn more about our subscription-based research services, contact [email protected].

Follow us on Twitter @MAGNAGlobal.

The Power of Connecting with What’s Happening

By Taylor Ward, Research Manager, Twitter and Kara Manatt, SVP Group Director, Magna Intelligence.

 

Download the full report

 

For as long as mass media has existed, brands have had a seat at the table during major cultural moments. As viewers, we’ve come to expect to see our favourite sporting events and concerts brought to us by brand sponsors. It is common practice for the ads we watch to feature celebrities and be in touch with the latest popular trends. More recently, we’ve even begun to see brands support and help drive social issues that are important to their audience. In 2019 Twitter and MAGNA interviewed 505 people in the UK for their research on “The Power of Connecting with What’s Happening,” where they looked at how brand involvement in culture impacts consumer perceptions and what it means for a brand to be culturally relevant.

Forty-one percent of those surveyed felt it is important for brands to be involved in social issues and movements, while 36% consider it important for brands to be involved in live events (such as the BRIT awards) and trends like organic and clean products. Young adults (A18-35) feel even more strongly, not only about culture in general, but also the importance of brand involvement in it. And all signs point to that sentiment growing over time.

For brands, aligning with and reflecting culture is key to staying relevant and top-of-mind; and for those that do it best, integrating with culture is truly part of their identity. However, what impact do these efforts have on their business objectives? As it turns out, a sizeable one. Almost one-fifth (18%) of a consumer’s purchase decision is based on a brand’s cultural involvement. This is good news for marketers who have little control in the short term over the other factors that drive purchase decisions—price and quality (55%) and brand perceptions (27%)—but who have direct control over how their messaging reflects culture.

Brands who have established themselves as more culturally relevant in the eyes of consumers also benefit in other ways. At a high level, consumers are simply more likely to identify with them; 2.5 times more likely, to be exact. It establishes a personal connection, which is no small feat for an advertiser. Culturally relevant brands also have the added perks of being seen as “authentic,” “innovative,” “inspiring,” and “thoughtful”–all attributes that can be difficult to convey in an ad. Instead, these attributes are implicitly communicated through actions and campaigns aimed at making those connections (e.g. giving back to local communities, sponsoring the Latin Grammy Awards, etc.).

So what are the best ways for brands to be involved in culture? In our current uncertain times, some brands have taken quick action to adjust and respond. Take Spotify, for example. While involvement with culture is nothing new for them–they have always supported events that are important to consumers–they’ve recently sought to play a positive role in the current global crisis. This includes conveying messages of support for key workers on the frontlines, and matching donations up to $10 million USD to provide COVID-19 relief for the music industry globally. These efforts align with the actions that consumers consider important—giving to the community (52%) and supporting social issues that are important to everyone (48%).

While “giving back” is at the top of the list for consumers, that’s not the only impactful option available to brands. They can get into consumers’ good graces by being inclusive, transparent, and of course “sponsoring cultural events”. This is good news for all brands. With so many options available, it means they have the ability to get involved in ways that are truly authentic. While the research shows that being a culturally relevant brand pays off in a myriad of ways, it is important to focus on the issues, trends, and events with which they genuinely align.

By asking consumers to rate the cultural relevance of brands across a range of industries, (including those that are often thought of as less “exciting”), we confirmed that they have the ability to stand out as relevant regardless of their category. Even more traditional verticals such as financial services have wide variation in cultural relevance from brand to brand. This demonstrates that every industry has room for competition and growth when it comes to cultural relevance.

While this research demonstrates that playing an active role in culture is critical to brands’ business objectives, COVID-19 has put the spotlight on something more personal; corporations no longer exist simply to drive sales. Now more than ever, it’s important for brands to stay engaged and be there for their customers. Making donations, giving thanks to frontline workers, and being a resource for information and support not only has a positive impact on-brand, but also helps serve a greater purpose.

For more recommendations on how your brand can effectively communicate during this difficult time, see Twitter’s blog post ”Brand Communications in a Time of Crisis.”

 

Unlike TV, Almost All Viewers Are Present for Digital Video Ads

But their attention starts to drop after two seconds

 

person's hands typing on a laptop
Almost 100% of people are present for digital display ads.

 

More people are staying indoors and staring at their screens, but are those people still looking at their screens when an ad shows up?

According to a study from Magna, around 99% of people are present or within a viewable distance of their screen for at least one second when a video ad appears. But viewer presence declines over time, dipping below 94% after six seconds.

Digital advertising is approximately a $150 billion marketplace, so “every percentage point counts,” said Kara Manatt, Magna Global’s svp, group director, intelligence solutions.

As part of a viewability study, Magna examined the digital consumption habits of over 100 U.S. participants to measure whether people were actually in front of their computers and mobile devices. Magna ran a similar study in December that found 29% of TV ads aired to an empty room.

While the vast majority of participants were physically present, there’s still no guarantee they were actually paying attention.

“We were focused on one piece of viewability, which does not equal attention,” said Manatt. “It’s really the ad’s job to have an impact and garner attention.”

Some ad formats have a better chance of garnering attention than others. Pre-roll video ads have a presence of 99.5%, while mid-roll comes in at 97.1%. Manatt said attention-related best practices are especially important for mid-roll ads.

“Otherwise [consumers] are going to run to the restroom or do exactly what they do with TV ads and run an in-the-house errand or do something else during the ad pod,” she said.

Among YouTube, Hulu, Facebook and what Magna categorized as “other websites,” presence dropped the most on Facebook’s video ads by 7% after two seconds.

The study showed that nearly 100% of people are present for mobile display ads.

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